Delphi Technique
Delphi technique is a method of gathering expert opinions through a series of questionnaires distributed to a group of experts.
What is the Delphi Technique?
There is so much hype about Delphi technique so do you know what is Delphi technique? Delphi technique is defined as maintaining a well-structured discussion around a panel of experts' answers to multiple rounds of questionnaires.
This method was brought to market by RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Since its inception, it has gained much attention among various industries in predicting trends, creating strategies, and making informed decisions.
Each expert receives an aggregate summary of the last round after the questionnaire round, allowing them to adjust their answers accordingly.
By combining expert analysis with crowdsourcing, you can maximize the benefits of expert analysis.
Characteristics of the Delphi Method
- The experts may know each other, but they cannot identify their opinions based on consultation ideas.
- Multiple presentations of the same questionnaire with controlled feedback are necessary.
- Statistic representation of group responses: the results are based on the level of agreement reached by the experts.
- The panel of experts is heterogeneous, meaning they may come from different fields of expertise.
Uses of the Delphi Method
Here is how delphi technique used for:
Making strategic decisions
The Delphi Method is a highly effective method for making strategic decisions. Experts help organizations anticipate future scenarios, opportunities, and risks so they can formulate strong strategies.
Analyzing trends and forecasting
The Delphi method excels at predicting future developments and trends. Businesses and policymakers can use experts' predictions and projections to prepare for upcoming developments.
Pros Of Delphi Technique
Delphi offers the following advantages:
- Gives decision-makers several options
- Involve experts who are well versed in the topics, increasing accuracy and reliability
- Assures anonymity throughout the process, resulting in no bias
- Engages participants in creative activities
- Estimates and predicts the future
- Easy, quick, and cost-effective implementation
The Delphi Method: Steps to follow
Here is step by step Delphi process to follow to implement the technique:
Step 1: Defining the goals
Delphi studies must start by clearly defining their objectives and scope. They must also identify the key issues to address and the specific questions that need expert input. This step maintains focus and relevance throughout the entire research process.
Step 2: Expert selection
Delphi technique success depends on choosing the right experts for well-informed decisions. The experts on board must be well-versed in the topic at hand.
The number of experts may vary by project scope and difficulty, but there should be at least 10-15 participants in most cases.
Step 3: Develop and launch questionnaires
This step takes you to developing and launching questionnaires and involves multiple rounds. Here, selected experts will be required to fill out a questionnaire. Participants are generally allowed to express their opinions and insights freely without fear of being influenced by others' opinions.
- Round 1: Each expert receives an open-ended questionnaire in the first round. The experts provide their insights, predictions, and suggestions independently.
- Round 2: Based on the responses from Round 1, the facilitator compiles and summarizes the expert opinions anonymously. After reviewing the summary, another questionnaire with more focus and structure is created.
- Subsequent rounds (optional): If there's enough consent at the end of the previous round, extra rounds can be held. Facilitators may continue iterating until a predetermined level of consensus has been reached.
Step 4: Implementing the results
Whenever a Delphi consensus is reached following the Delphi process, its results are analyzed and used to inform policy development, future forecasts, decision-making, and other objectives. Delphi studies are anonymous to ensure unbiased outcomes representing the collective wisdom of the participants.
Delphi Method examples
Among the real-world applications of the Delphi Method are its use in public health for treating specific diseases. Expert opinions are sought by health authorities and policymakers throughout the globe to understand the complexity of this disease. With the Delphi Method, healthcare professionals and scientists, public health specialists, and infectious disease specialists were engaged. This way, insights are gathered into different aspects of the disease, such as its transmission mode, treatment options, prevention methods, and healthcare implications. Delphi is an efficient and flexible method of bringing experts together to answer challenging questions.
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